{"created":"2023-07-25T10:37:23.734962+00:00","id":12983,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"de13ee24-d891-445a-8f26-82a1e3e016c4"},"_deposit":{"created_by":10,"id":"12983","owners":[10],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"12983"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:senshu-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00012983","sets":["27:83:84:85:1469"]},"author_link":["5988"],"item_10002_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2022-03-15","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"3","bibliographicPageEnd":"70","bibliographicPageStart":"43","bibliographicVolumeNumber":"56","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"専修経済学論集","bibliographic_titleLang":"ja"}]}]},"item_10002_creator_2":{"attribute_name":"作成者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"中島, 巖","creatorNameLang":"ja"},{"creatorName":"Nakajima, Iwao","creatorNameLang":"en"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_10002_description_25":{"attribute_name":"内容記述","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"後になって,穀物法(Corn Laws)の是非をめぐって,反対するD.Ricardoと対決することになるT.R.Malthusは,それに先立ち,貧困と悪徳の原因を私有財産制度に求めるCalvin派啓蒙主義に影響を受けた無政府主義者W.Godwinと対決した。本能が招く幾何級数的人口増加に対し算術級数的食糧供給しか見込めないとする過剰人口論者でもあるMalthusは,貧困も悪徳も出生率の予防的制限化に作用する要因として,これを是認した。このとき,かかる要因の中に疫病が数えられている。\nMalthusは,自然死亡率に対する自然出生率の比を平均的一個人の寿命に対する子孫の平均人数とみなして,人口の増減化を分かつ閾値(threshold)とした。そのほぼ100年後,KermackとMcKendrickは,疫病の感染過程に関する数理モデルを提示し,疫病の拡大化と終息化を分かつ,後に基本再生産数と呼ばれる閾値のあり方を分析した。KermackおよびMcKendrickとMalthusの間に閾値を介した縁を感じざるを得ない。\n以下では,KermackとMcKendrickが提示した原モデルである区画モデルが秘める現実妥当性の点からの不備が補修され,さらに,その発展化が図られる。\nまず,少数の感染者しか存在しない疫病突発の初期段階に対して多数個体間の均質な接触を前提とする不都合を斥け,ネットワークを通じた分枝過程の適用を図り,確率母函数のタームで表わされた閾値である基本再生産数が,1を下回るとき疫病が終息し,1を上回るとき拡大化していく可能性が確かめられる。\n次に,KermackとMcKendrickの原モデルにおける感染区画を潜伏区画と伝染区画とに二分する形で潜伏期間を導入し,SEIRモデルへと拡張した上で,Lyapunov函数の適用によって,その局所的安定性と大域的安定性が保証される条件の特定化が図られる。","subitem_description_language":"ja","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_10002_identifier_registration":{"attribute_name":"ID登録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_reg_text":"10.34360/00012965","subitem_identifier_reg_type":"JaLC"}]},"item_10002_publisher_26":{"attribute_name":"公開者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"専修大学経済学会","subitem_publisher_language":"ja"}]},"item_10002_source_id_28":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"0386-4383","subitem_source_identifier_type":"PISSN"}]},"item_10002_source_id_29":{"attribute_name":"書誌レコードID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AN00132359","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_10002_title_1":{"attribute_name":"別言語のタイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"Infectious Disease Outbreak and Latent Periods in the Transmission","subitem_title_language":"en"}]},"item_10002_version_type_20":{"attribute_name":"出版タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85","subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_access_right":{"attribute_name":"アクセス権","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_access_right":"open access","subitem_access_right_uri":"http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2"}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2023-01-12"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"1011_0141_08.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"716.8 kB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"1011_0141_08.pdf","objectType":"fulltext","url":"https://senshu-u.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/12983/files/1011_0141_08.pdf"},"version_id":"4611a903-de1f-4de8-95c2-e3eaa5318994"}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"感染突発","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"分枝過程","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"潜伏期間","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"SEIRモデル","subitem_subject_language":"ja","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"疫病における感染突発と潜伏期間","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"疫病における感染突発と潜伏期間","subitem_title_language":"ja"}]},"item_type_id":"10002","owner":"10","path":["1469"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"PubDate","attribute_value":"2023-01-12"},"publish_date":"2023-01-12","publish_status":"0","recid":"12983","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["疫病における感染突発と潜伏期間"],"weko_creator_id":"10","weko_shared_id":-1},"updated":"2024-03-21T01:51:28.398742+00:00"}